November 20th, 2009 
mcdpoker 
What do you do when your opponent bets, and you think there is a reasonable chance it’s a bluff? Do you call just to find out he had the expected honest hand, or do you fold to have your opponent show you his bluff with a smile?
This is one the most difficult questions in Poker, particularly in no-limit Poker, where the price to “keep your opponent honest” may be high, and the right decision varies according to the size of the bet. Some players try to solve it by psychological means. Some of these means, such as looking for physical tells and chatting with your opponents, are limited to real live Poker, and we won’t discuss them. Some are common to live and online games, such as creating a table image and acting according (or in contrast to) your image, or taking notice of your opponents’ betting patterns (are they on tilt?). These are fair ways to gain an edge, but they are inconsistent at best. In fact, they are often misleading – since your impression of the opponent is usually based on too few hands. You can get a deeper statistics repository and analysis using some Poker software tools, but we will leave that to another newsletter. Today we will discuss the core of the game – When do you call, assuming you don’t know your opponents, or haven’t identified anything special about them?
Calling on the river
Lets assume you are one of two players remaining active on the river, and your opponent makes a bet. First, it should be clear that if your hand has a chance to beat a legitimate value bet, you should call. So let’s assume your hand can hardly beat an honest value bet, yet you are concerned that your opponent may be bluffing. Should you call?
The reality is that your opponent will sometimes be bluffing and sometimes he won’t. We don’t know when our opponents are bluffing either. Your aim should be to prevent your opponent’s bluffs from being too profitable in the long run. If you call enough to make your opponent lose in the long run almost as much money from your calls as he gains from the pots stolen when you fold, you will take away most of the power of his bluffs.
How frequent should you call? The answer depends on the size of the bet. Let’s do the math. If the opponent makes a pot size bet, you should call about 50% of the times. This way, when your opponent bluffs he makes 50% * Pot – 50% * Pot size bet = 0. If your opponent makes 1/2 pot size bet, you should call about 2/3 of the times. Your opponent will make 1/3 * Pot – 2/3 * 1/2 pot size bet = 0. In general, the frequency of your calls should be close to (Bet size / (Bet size + Pot size)). To be precise, you should call slightly less than this frequency, but don’t worry about it – it doesn’t make a practical difference.
What if there are more than 2 players in the pot? It actually makes your decision much easier. You need to call far fewer marginal hands, if any. The reason is that all players collectively keep the bettor honest. If in a 2 player pot you would call 50% of your hands, with a 3 player pot you can call about 30% (slightly less when the other player is behind you, but more if the third player has folded). You and the third player together will call about 50% to make sure the bettor doesn’t profit from bluffing. With more than 3 players you usually don’t have a problem – calling the hands that you think are reasonably likely to beat a value bet is enough.
How do you select the calling hands? So, you’ve decided that you need to call 40% of the bets in a certain position; does it mean you should call a 77 pair? We will elaborate separately on methods and tools that help you keep track of the betting sequence and understand what hands are good enough to call. For now, we’ll share one thought on that matter. There are three groups of hands:
1. Hand that has reasonable chance of beating an honest value bet: Call these hands. Raise with some of the best ones.
2. Hands that can beat a bluff but can not beat a value bet: Call with hands that indicate that your opponent is bluffing. A few examples:
- You have a top pair with a lousy kicker, and you think your opponent needs a top-pair top-kicker for a value bet. The fact that you hold one of the outstanding cards that make a top pair increases the chance that your opponent is bluffing.
- There is 3 flush on the board, and you have pocket AA including the A of the flush suit, implying that your opponent does not have a flush
- There is 432 on the board and you have 55 pair, implying that your opponent does not have a straight.
Notice that in all of these cases not only do you suspect your opponent is bluffing, but you can also beat the bluff.
3. Hands that can’t beat a bluff. Never call, but occasionally bluff raise with hands that imply your opponent is bluffing
“I call with the right frequency but lose too much money on the river”. Does that describe your situation? Some students of ours discovered that they were calling with the recommended hands, and indeed occasionally exposing their opponents’ bluffs. Yet, at the end of the day, they were losing more money by calling, than the value of the pots they managed to salvage. The answer to this problem lies in the previous rounds of play. The recommended calling frequency assumes you reach the river with hands as good as your opponents’. In fact, if you apply a sound strategy in the previous rounds, you will win the river on more than your fair share of hands. However, if you play too loose, you won’t have enough value on the river to call your opponent’s bets. Don’t change your river strategy. Tighten your play in the previous rounds.
Calling on the flop/turn
The logic behind your calling decisions is the same. You need to call enough marginal hands to make your opponent’s bluffs unprofitable. The more players are in the pot, the less you need to call. There are two differences though:
1. You have to call more often. The reason is that your opponent’s bluffing hands can still win even if you call, by drawing the next cards. In order to make up for that, you have to call somewhat more frequently.
2. Fortunately, you get some drawing hands too. By calling (or raising) them, in addition to your made hands, you increase the frequency of your calls. In fact, you can let go some borderline hands that aren’t likely to improve (low pocket pair, A high), in exchange for some drawing hands that can become monsters (open-ended straight, etc.)
Calling pre-flop
If you are not any of the blinds, you have nothing to protect, and therefore you should only call (or raise) hands that are good enough to make a positive result on average. You probably have developed your own pre-flop strategy by now, but if you haven’t, check out our pre flop guide for beginners for a good starting point.
If you are one of the blinds, the most important thing you should notice is the position of the player who raised pre-flop. Remember that the more players he was betting against, the less frequently each one should call to “keep him honest”. If the bettor was in the first 3-4 positions in a 10 table game, you can practically ignore the blind you wagered, unless you are facing a ninimum bet. If the bettor was in later positions, you should gradually increase the frequency of your calls. In theory you should call from the big blind against a late-position bettor very often. However, if you are uncomfortable playing rags later on, don’t worry about folding – better lose one BB than lose more in later rounds. If you play heads-up that’s a different story – the pre-flop play is a key to success – but enough said for today.
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